After watching Duke annihilate another opponent on their way to a 7-0 start, I was curious to see how the national media would react to their early season success. Duke came into the game ranked 7th in the nation so it is hard to say they have been ignored. At the same time, this is a team that ended a largely disappointing season by going out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last March and only got worse since then by losing their only "superstar" to the NBA draft. The Devils were not able to sign any marquee recruits other than Kyle Singler while the rest of the country seemed to get bigger and better. To say the least, there were no expectations coming into this season. I felt lucky to see them mentioned in the back half of a top 20 preview.
Before last night's game, there was talk of being overrated at #7 since they really only had one quality win (albeit an impressive one against Big East power Marquette). I think its safe to say we can put that overrated talk to bed. Wisconsin was not just a second quality win. Granted, they are not as good as they were last year with Alando Tucker, but they still have size and they will compete all year long in the Big 10. Size is something Duke clearly lacks. Their biggest starters are a couple of undersized 6'8" guys and they only count one bench guy over 6'5". Even with this huge disadvantage, they have only been out-rebounded once all year - last night 42-40.
Duke has moved away from its traditional balanced game and now possesses one of the best speed games in the country. With a healthy Greg Paulus running the point and an extremely capable backup in Nolan Smith, the Devils can afford to push the tempo without risking the turnovers. In addition to the improved guard play, they finally have some finishers on the other side. Gerald Henderson can jump out of the gym, Singler can hit from anywhere inside of 30 feet and they have 6 legitimate 3-point shooters. As a team they are shooting over 45% from behind the arc.
All of this brings me back to the title of the post. Anybody who has watched Duke play the past few seasons knows how frustrating games became when they fell behind. Their style of play was slow and they really kept possessions to a minimum. Well, here is some real proof that all this is changing. The hoop prodigies over at Kenpom (http://www.kenpom.com/), keep track of a statistic called Raw Tempo. This statistic tracks the number of possessions a team averages in 40 minutes of play. Pretty simple really. Duke's average since 2002 has been in the 50's which is pretty much near the bottom of the ACC and well below national averages. This worked well when the team was stocked with guys like JJ Redick (41 points on 13 shots against Texas in 2005) and Sheldon Williams banging down low. Without consistent scorers, playing for as few possessions as possible does not bode well for long term success.
Through the first seven games of the 07/08 campaign, Duke has increased its Raw Tempo well into the 70's. This jump is huge, they are averaging 20 more possessions a game now. Even more telling is what they are doing to their opponent's Raw Tempo. Anytime you can get your opponent to play your game at your speed, the chances of victory improve dramatically. In six of the first seven contests, the Blue Devils have brought teams up to them. Marquette already plays a fast tempo game which makes the W in Maui even more impressive.
You might think this optimism is somewhat carried away. After all, we are talking seven games here and nobody believes in mean reversion more than I do. But you can not discount the changes in this years squad compared to any Duke team in this decade. They are deep, they are fast and they can score at will. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the nitty, gritty months of January and February. If I was a betting man, and it is really only laziness that keeps me from degenerate status, I'm putting my money on a 26 win season. Good luck Tar Holes.
Before last night's game, there was talk of being overrated at #7 since they really only had one quality win (albeit an impressive one against Big East power Marquette). I think its safe to say we can put that overrated talk to bed. Wisconsin was not just a second quality win. Granted, they are not as good as they were last year with Alando Tucker, but they still have size and they will compete all year long in the Big 10. Size is something Duke clearly lacks. Their biggest starters are a couple of undersized 6'8" guys and they only count one bench guy over 6'5". Even with this huge disadvantage, they have only been out-rebounded once all year - last night 42-40.
Duke has moved away from its traditional balanced game and now possesses one of the best speed games in the country. With a healthy Greg Paulus running the point and an extremely capable backup in Nolan Smith, the Devils can afford to push the tempo without risking the turnovers. In addition to the improved guard play, they finally have some finishers on the other side. Gerald Henderson can jump out of the gym, Singler can hit from anywhere inside of 30 feet and they have 6 legitimate 3-point shooters. As a team they are shooting over 45% from behind the arc.
All of this brings me back to the title of the post. Anybody who has watched Duke play the past few seasons knows how frustrating games became when they fell behind. Their style of play was slow and they really kept possessions to a minimum. Well, here is some real proof that all this is changing. The hoop prodigies over at Kenpom (http://www.kenpom.com/), keep track of a statistic called Raw Tempo. This statistic tracks the number of possessions a team averages in 40 minutes of play. Pretty simple really. Duke's average since 2002 has been in the 50's which is pretty much near the bottom of the ACC and well below national averages. This worked well when the team was stocked with guys like JJ Redick (41 points on 13 shots against Texas in 2005) and Sheldon Williams banging down low. Without consistent scorers, playing for as few possessions as possible does not bode well for long term success.
Through the first seven games of the 07/08 campaign, Duke has increased its Raw Tempo well into the 70's. This jump is huge, they are averaging 20 more possessions a game now. Even more telling is what they are doing to their opponent's Raw Tempo. Anytime you can get your opponent to play your game at your speed, the chances of victory improve dramatically. In six of the first seven contests, the Blue Devils have brought teams up to them. Marquette already plays a fast tempo game which makes the W in Maui even more impressive.
You might think this optimism is somewhat carried away. After all, we are talking seven games here and nobody believes in mean reversion more than I do. But you can not discount the changes in this years squad compared to any Duke team in this decade. They are deep, they are fast and they can score at will. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the nitty, gritty months of January and February. If I was a betting man, and it is really only laziness that keeps me from degenerate status, I'm putting my money on a 26 win season. Good luck Tar Holes.
2 comments:
Duke has never had a team under K that has had a tempo in the 50s. I'm not sure what stat you're seeing on kenpom's website saying that. From my stats, Duke has played raw tempos (since 02-03) of 71.2, 68.3, 68.8, 71.6, and 66.4.
You are correct, I misquoted that. Over a stretch last year from 2/1 through 3/4 their tempo was high 50's. Thanks for catching that.
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