Thursday, November 29, 2007

Finally

It only took 17 games for the greatest college 3-point shooter of all time to score in the 2007/2008 season. I guess that's kind of unfair. He's only played in 6 games this year for a total of 37 minutes, 17 of which came last night. Hopefully, his most recent performance will earn him a little more playing time. 4/5 overall and 2/2 from 3-point land is one way to impress your critics. Personally, I couldn't be happier for the guy. I might not be dead yet in my wager that he'd be starting All Star games by his 5th season in the league.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Raw Tempo


After watching Duke annihilate another opponent on their way to a 7-0 start, I was curious to see how the national media would react to their early season success. Duke came into the game ranked 7th in the nation so it is hard to say they have been ignored. At the same time, this is a team that ended a largely disappointing season by going out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last March and only got worse since then by losing their only "superstar" to the NBA draft. The Devils were not able to sign any marquee recruits other than Kyle Singler while the rest of the country seemed to get bigger and better. To say the least, there were no expectations coming into this season. I felt lucky to see them mentioned in the back half of a top 20 preview.

Before last night's game, there was talk of being overrated at #7 since they really only had one quality win (albeit an impressive one against Big East power Marquette). I think its safe to say we can put that overrated talk to bed. Wisconsin was not just a second quality win. Granted, they are not as good as they were last year with Alando Tucker, but they still have size and they will compete all year long in the Big 10. Size is something Duke clearly lacks. Their biggest starters are a couple of undersized 6'8" guys and they only count one bench guy over 6'5". Even with this huge disadvantage, they have only been out-rebounded once all year - last night 42-40.

Duke has moved away from its traditional balanced game and now possesses one of the best speed games in the country. With a healthy Greg Paulus running the point and an extremely capable backup in Nolan Smith, the Devils can afford to push the tempo without risking the turnovers. In addition to the improved guard play, they finally have some finishers on the other side. Gerald Henderson can jump out of the gym, Singler can hit from anywhere inside of 30 feet and they have 6 legitimate 3-point shooters. As a team they are shooting over 45% from behind the arc.

All of this brings me back to the title of the post. Anybody who has watched Duke play the past few seasons knows how frustrating games became when they fell behind. Their style of play was slow and they really kept possessions to a minimum. Well, here is some real proof that all this is changing. The hoop prodigies over at Kenpom (http://www.kenpom.com/), keep track of a statistic called Raw Tempo. This statistic tracks the number of possessions a team averages in 40 minutes of play. Pretty simple really. Duke's average since 2002 has been in the 50's which is pretty much near the bottom of the ACC and well below national averages. This worked well when the team was stocked with guys like JJ Redick (41 points on 13 shots against Texas in 2005) and Sheldon Williams banging down low. Without consistent scorers, playing for as few possessions as possible does not bode well for long term success.

Through the first seven games of the 07/08 campaign, Duke has increased its Raw Tempo well into the 70's. This jump is huge, they are averaging 20 more possessions a game now. Even more telling is what they are doing to their opponent's Raw Tempo. Anytime you can get your opponent to play your game at your speed, the chances of victory improve dramatically. In six of the first seven contests, the Blue Devils have brought teams up to them. Marquette already plays a fast tempo game which makes the W in Maui even more impressive.

You might think this optimism is somewhat carried away. After all, we are talking seven games here and nobody believes in mean reversion more than I do. But you can not discount the changes in this years squad compared to any Duke team in this decade. They are deep, they are fast and they can score at will. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the nitty, gritty months of January and February. If I was a betting man, and it is really only laziness that keeps me from degenerate status, I'm putting my money on a 26 win season. Good luck Tar Holes.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Ten Things I Think I Think

Is that plagiarism? Oh really? Let me get to work on changing it. Sorry 'bout that Pete. In the meantime, here are my football related thoughts from the weekend.

1. It just happened 12 minutes ago, but its good enough to make #1. Ricky Williams, after not taking an NFL sized hit in 22 some odd months, just picked up a first down on his first carry of the game. For that alone, he's my comeback player of the year. Probably why they won't let me have a vote.

2. Since Ricky won't qualify, is it possible to take your team to the Super Bowl, open up camp the following season as the entrenched starter, lose your job due to ineptness only to get it back since your back up is slightly less competent than you and then win comeback player of the year after taking your team to its second consecutive Super Bowl? You think I'm kidding, but this will happen and nobody deserves it more than the Cannon.

3. The Patriots were exposed. It was only a matter of time before this happened but make no mistake, the Eagles showed the rest of the league how to beat the Pats.

4. Even though the Cards couldn't pull it out in the end, it was great to see Sean Morey get some meaningful time. Morey always had the potential to be the homeless man's Wes Welker but for some reason, he was always relegated to practice squads and special teams. To see him grab that 60 yarder setting up a Neil Racker's chipshot was special. Until Racker's chocked.

5. Thank you Tully Banta-Cain for ensuring the Pats will not get a top two pick in next year's draft.

6-9. Irrelevant. I don't like people wasting my time, I won't waste yours.

10. My thoughts and prayers go out to Sean Taylor and his family. It's a terrible situation that you hate to hear about regardless of who is involved.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Week 12 In Progress


I hate Sunday mornings. Forget about the hangovers or the fact there is never anything in the apartment worth eating, its the waiting that kills me. When I was younger, I would only have to wait until noon time. That's when the pregame shows came on. There were 3 to choose from, I didn't have a favorite. I would spend the hour flipping between them, trying to find a topic or team that I gave a shit about. How I long for those days. Now my day doesn't get started until 1:05. Why you ask? Because today's pregame shows are absolutely worthless. Its almost as if the network chiefs got together and said let's take a mildly watchable product and flush it down the shitter. Let's bring in the most obnoxious, waspy and douchy on air talent. Let's get rid of factual analysis and replace it with incoherent bloviating. Kudos to ESPN for taking it all one step further by expanding their show a whole hour.

You know what else I hate? The jewelry Christmas commercials that run during every single break. I've been watching football for 2 hours and 28 minutes so far and I have seen approximately 324 Zales, Kays and Beldin's spots. It's football for christ sakes. I don't need this shit. You want to maximize your return on advertising dollars? Air them during Grey's Anatomy. Dicks.

As for the actual games, not a bad slate up in the Northeast. Competitive to say nothing else. Well competitive going into the games, not so much now for the NY Giants. I am not really sure how this is possible but the Vikes have scored 41 points on less than 220 yards of total offense, 60 of which came on the second play of the game. I guess this sort of thing happens when you throw 2 quick-six picks in under a minute. Well done Eli. Thankfully Fox has switched over to the Bucs-Skins. The late game provides two of the most dysfunctional teams in the league - two totally inept offenses and two overrated defenses. If the Chargers win they'll be a game over .500 which pretty much locks up a playoff spot out in the AFC West. Pathetic.

Fianlly, if the Eagles can't cover a 22 spread tonight, they should be immediately relegated to the CFL. I have been in touch with NFL to make sure this happens so at least we'll have something to keep us interested during the rout.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

And It Begins Like It Will End

With banner number 4 going to the rafters.

Yes, that's right, the Blue Devils are back. I know, I know its only a preseason tournament but Kyle Singler and company blew through the competition. Duke won its three games by an average margin of 14 points extending its unbeaten record in Maui to 12 games.

I am going to put it out there right now - Duke will cut down the nets in San Antonio in 2008. Granted, I make this prediction year after year but this year is different. Coach K has assembled a team void of any weaknesses that have plagued them since their last National Title. They are young, fast and extremely talented. Most importantly they have depth. No more 6 man rotations trying to keep pace with the other ACC powerhouses. That means they might actually make it out of conference play with their legs beneath them instead of running on fumes.

Am I being overly optimistic? Probably, but the team is 5-0 and I can't find a potential loss on their schedule until February. So fuck it, title number 4 is coming to Cameron.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Quick Hits From Buffalo


Its Tuesday afternoon and only now am I beginning to recover from a hedonistic voyage to the armpit of New York. I've heard plenty of stories but never expected Buffalo to be such a shithole. Their economic plight in the 21st century rivals that of Detroit or Cleveland. You would think they would be happy the eight weekends a year when the Bills play at Ralph Wilson and out of town guests come up and dump their hard earned dollars at local establishments. It would only make sense right? Not even a little bit. Logic is in short supply, probably as a result of the city's proximity to Canada.
Here are some more thoughts and observations from the weekend.
  • Ralph Wilson Stadium is a great venue. Say what you will about the city or the state for that matter, but the stadium is a hell of a place to watch football. Not a bad seat in the house. Compare that to Gillette where you need oxygen if you get stuck high enough up in the 300's. There's also something about bench seating that you just can't beat.
  • There are two types of Bills fans - Most are scumbag locals who would fight a girl if she was wearing a Brady jersey (don't laugh, this came inches away from happening) while the remaining minority are Canadians sick of the single A CFL product. The Canadians are a little light in the loafers, but much more friendly to deal with.
  • The trip from Boston to Buffalo is god awful. 8 hours of pure misery.
  • When somebody tells you to hit the strip clubs in Canada, go to the strip clubs in Canada. They are only a half hour away and you might actually get to see some nudity. In Buffalo, the girls are required to wear band-aids over their nips. They are like flesh toned pasties.
  • Speaking of the strip clubs, I've come to the conclusion that I have a real hard time distinguishing where the strip club ends and reality resumes. Honestly, it sometimes takes a good two days before it sinks in that you can't actually lear at anything with breasts and 20 dollars won't get you a private showing somewhere out back.
  • As for the game, well we all saw what happened there. Give the Bills credit, they played it close for the first 7 minutes.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Welcome

This is a project that has been in the making for a while. I am only about three years late to the blogosphere but rest assured I have spent the majority of my disposable time and energy on criticizing the efforts of others.

I will not waste time with one of those bullshit introductory posts that talk about my likes and dislikes or what I hope to accomplish with my posts. And I certainly will not go into any philosophical explanation of the project's name. The content will be mostly sports related and the bias and hatred will shine through like nothing you have have ever seen before. Enjoy.