Is This What You Had in Mind?

I was trying to think of other great right-handers similar in style and stuff to Justin Verlander, who is closing in on a five-year, $80 million deal with the Tigers. Verlander is tall and angular, so he really isn't like the diminutive Pedro Martinez, and he really has a very different repertoire (and command) than Greg Maddux, and he isn't a massive power guy like a Roger Clemens or Curt Schilling.

And then this name came to mind: Dwight Gooden.


Doc was lithe at the outset of his career, 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, and could consistently throw in the mid-to-high 90s, and he'd mix that fastball with his stunning curveball. He was the most dominant pitcher in the majors for a couple of years -- and then we know the rest of the story.

Verlander, 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds, is evolving in a way that Gooden did not, it seems. His ability to focus game to game, inning to inning and pitch-to-pitch improved dramatically last year. In the second and third seasons of his career, he would seem to drift through some starts, throwing out some inconsistent outings.

But last year, he appeared to pitch with such purpose. After compiling 163 strikeouts and 87 walks in 2008, Verlander had 269 strikeouts and only 63 walks in 2009. He was the Tigers' plow horse, throwing 240 innings, but he was also dominant in big moments, working fast, attacking hitters relentlessly; watching his innings play out, it felt like he was a boxer who had his opponent in a corner and he intended to just continue throwing punches until the other guy hit the canvas. Last year, in two-out situations, opposing batters compiled an OPS of .591, with a slugging percentage of .322.

There is no better finisher than Verlander in the majors right now. The inning-to-inning OPS against him is as follows.

1: .761
2: .521
3: .538
4: .582
5: .664
6: .858
7: .604
8: .919
9: .606


And so the Tigers are right to commit an enormous contract to a guy who won't be 27 for another couple of weeks, and who has established a nice base for what might turn out to be a Hall of Fame career.

These are the most wins in the first five seasons for Tigers pitchers, since 1961:

Mickey Lolich: 66
Justin Verlander: 65
Dan Petry: 60
Denny McLain: 59
Jeremy Bonderman: 56
Jack Morris: 51


It turned out that the sixth year that was talked about in the negotiations wasn't a deal-breaker, Tom Gage writes. The signing of Verlander is good for the Tigers, writes Drew Sharp.

Some stuff on Verlander from Mark Simon and Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Information:

Here's Verlander's average fastball rank among MLB pitchers with 20-plus starts (courtesy FanGraphs.com):

Bringing the Heat
Year MPH Rank
2009 95.6 2nd out of 117
2008 93.6 11th out of 128
2007 94.8 3rd out of 122
2006 95.1 2nd out of 115


And here's a list of guys who have the highest overall average fastball velocity since 2007:

Ubaldo Jimenez: 95.5
Justin Verlander: 94.7
Felix Hernandez: 94.6
A.J. Burnett: 94.5
Josh Beckett: 94.3

About his contract: Verlander's five-year, $80 million contract is the second-largest signed by a player to avoid arbitration since 2007, according to BizofBaseball.com:

I'm Not Thinkin' Arby's
Year Player $M Years
2007 Chase Utley 85.0 7
2010 Justin Verlander 80.0 5
2010 Felix Hernandez 78.0 5
2009 Nick Markakis 66.1 6
2009 Ryan Howard 54.0 3



Fightin' words

You can bet this column is going to draw some attention in New York: The owner of the Ravens had some harsh words for the way the Yankees have operated, and suggested that the GM of the Yankees should be fired for not running away with the division, given the team's payroll advantages.

Said Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti within the Peter Schmuck piece: The payroll advantage "certainly doesn't show up in the standings. If I'm a Yankees fan, I'm upset we're not winning 130 games with the roster that they have and the money that they pay out. I think it's a disgrace they only beat the average team by 10 games in the standings with three times the money. I'd fire that GM. You don't need a GM. All you have to do is buy the last Cy Young Award winner every year."

It's a little more complicated than that, of course. He might not have noticed, but Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez and Verlander, among others, aren't available every year.


Moves, deals and decisions

1. As Orlando Hudson makes his choice between the Twins, Indians and Nationals, you wonder what goes into this kind of decision. For example: If Hudson signs with the Twins, he would seemingly have a shot to hit in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau -- and you'd think this would mean he would see more fastballs, given that pitchers will not want to mess around and risk walking him.

This raises two questions: First, do the No. 2 hitters in the Twins' lineup -- the guys who hit in front of Mauer -- actually see more fastballs than most No. 2 hitters?

The answer, according to Sharp, is yes.

For the first question, here's the percentage of fastballs seen by No. 2 hitters for all 30 teams, ranked high to low. The Twins' No. 2 hitters last year saw fastballs 68.7 percent of the time, which was fifth-most in the majors. Also, related to Mark's note, the Twins' No. 2 hitters last year hit .290 versus fastballs, 18th in the majors, and had an OPS of .788 versus fastballs, 19th in the majors.

Mets: 73.9 percent
Padres: 73.7 percent
Tigers: 69.8 percent
Yankees: 69.1 percent
Twins: 68.7 percent
Angels: 68.1 percent
Royals: 68.0 percent
Red Sox: 68.0 percent
Rays: 66.3 percent
Indians: 66.3 percent
Athletics: 65.5 percent
Diamondbacks: 65.2 percent
Astros: 65.2 percent
Rangers: 64.8 percent
Brewers: 64.6 percent
Phillies: 64.5 percent
Dodgers: 64.3 percent
Orioles: 64.1 percent
Mariners: 64.0 percent
Marlins: 64.0 percent
Reds: 63.5 percent
Pirates: 63.1 percent
Giants: 63.0 percent
Nationals: 62.8 percent
Cubs: 62.8 percent
Braves: 62.5 percent
Rockies: 62.5 percent
Cardinals: 60.6 percent
Blue Jays: 60.2 percent
White Sox: 60.1 percent


The second question: Does Hudson do well against fastballs? The answer, according to Mark Simon, is yes. He dug out these numbers from Inside Edge. In 2009, Hudson hit .321 against fastballs, compared to the MLB average of .290, and had an .856 OPS, better than a league average of .839. One area that Inside Edge rates him very high in: He's 20th-best in MLB on fastballs away with a .353 BA (MLB average is .273).

2. The series of dominoes that will lead to the Padres' trading Adrian Gonzalez continues to fall; Padres CEO Jeff Moorad, who understands it will be tough for San Diego to re-sign Gonzalez, tells Tim Sullivan that no player is untouchable. I wrote here last month that the Padres have already had discussions about a possible extension, and the early indications are that Gonzalez will be in line to ask for a Mark Teixeira-like contract after he becomes a free agent in 2011 -- and that's something that San Diego is almost certainly not going to do. The Red Sox will be all over this conversation whenever it takes place.

3. Joe Mauer will have to accept less money from the Twins than he would get from other teams, writes John Shipley.

4. Casey Kotchman avoided arbitration with the Mariners, writes Larry Stone.

5. Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn remain options for the Mariners, writes Larry LaRue. The big question on both guys is how healthy they are, and how much they can contribute.

6. The Tim Lincecum's negotiations are a window into the reality that this is a new era in the Giants' organization, writes Andrew Baggarly.

7. The Rays claimed a pitcher on waivers, Marc Topkin writes.

8. The Dodgers' No. 5 starter could come from outside the organization, says Joe Torre.

9. Kevin Gregg's signing signals change, writes Morgan Campbell.

10. The Brewers claimed a pitcher on waivers, writes Tom Haudricourt.

11. The so-called Manny Ramirez provision has been banned, writes Bill Shaikin.

12. The Mets brought back a ticket plan. It'll be interesting to see what happens with their season tickets.


Other stuff

• Grady Sizemore says the pictures of him that wound up on the Internet have made for a tough situation, and he apologized, Tom Withers writes.

• At the right price, signing Johnny Damon would be a good idea for the Tigers, writes Jamie Samuelsen.

• Daniel Bard has found a comfortable place in the Boston bullpen, writes Daniel Barbarisi.

• One of the Mets' top prospects isn't sure he'll make it with the team.

• The naming rights to the Rays' ballpark in Port Charlotte were sold.

• The White Sox are working on an ad campaign aimed at Hispanics, writes Lewis Lazare.

• A Vanderbilt guy was at an awards banquet in Cleveland.

• Vanderbilt hung on to beat Mississippi State, Jeff Lockridge writes. Whew.

• Vanderbilt football signed a bunch of guys who were really good high school players. What does that mean? How good will they be? I have no idea.

And today will be better than yesterday.